In the FY23 President’s Budget Request, the total number of ship hulls requested in the “new construction” budget is nine. This request is spread across seven different classes of ships: two Virginia class subs, two Burke class destroyers and one each of a Frigate, Amphibious Assault ship, Amphibious Transport Dock, Oiler, and salvage ship.

This is a robust request with the Navy predicting a request of another nine hulls in FY24, nine more in FY25, then jumping to 13 in FY26 and 11 in FY27.

Now, let’s talk political reality.

The reality is the shipbuilding lobby is one of the strongest in Washington. And House Members and Senators representing the shipbuilding localities (California, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, Rhode Island, etc) sit on or chair the powerful Armed Services and Appropriations subcommittees where decisions are made on what the budget will actually fund (subject to the President’s agreement).

So, the reality is that the final FY23 budget documents will likely include far more than nine new ships for the Navy. If the very recent past is any indication, we predict the final Pentagon spending bill will unfortunately include as many as five unrequested (but not unrequited) ships. See our handy chart, showing the additional five hulls added to the FY22 request in bold in the second column.

As we noted yesterday, the Biden Administration’s Procurement request was the line with the smallest increase – less than 2%. We predict that, throwing fiscal caution to the seagoing “fair winds,” Congress will be adding all kinds of procurement projects to the request. And among the most expensive adds will be ships.

The Navy, when supplying its statutorily-mandated “Unfunded Priorities List” will surely ask for more ships. But even without that modest top cover, the Congress will add ships. They always do.