Executive Summary

The U.S. is currently planning to revamp its entire nuclear arsenal, including replacing the Minuteman III (MMIII) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with a new ICBM known as the Sentinel. In January 2024, the Air Force informed Congress of a 37 percent increase in the Sentinel’s projected acquisition costs, triggering a critical breach of the Nunn-McCurdy Act, which mandates that the Pentagon reevaluate programs experiencing significant cost overruns. Accounting for this recent cost growth, the development, procurement, operation, and sustainment of the Sentinel and its nuclear warheads is projected to cost taxpayers up to $315 billion through 2075. Weighing the purported benefits of the Sentinel against this immense cost, this report finds that the Sentinel’s attributes do not justify this cost, and thus recommends cancelling the Sentinel program. It also finds that the purported benefits of maintaining ICBMs in general do not justify the costs, and thus recommends retiring the Minuteman III ICBM in addition to cancelling the Sentinel.

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