November 4, 2011-5:43 PM

This way madness lies. Because the vast majority of the Super Committee’s activities have occurred behind closed doors and because the committee has done a good job of keeping its activities and considerations secret, reporters have been depending mostly on writing short stories on very small leaks or speculative stories about the public comments of people who might be in the know. That’s why all public accounts agree that the committee will not reach a deal possibly reach a deal come to a conclusion at some point in the next few weeks.

Just from the past few days, there is plenty of evidence that no deal can be reached. First off, Quinnipac University conducted a poll that found that only 24% of Americans think a deal is likely, throwing the cold water of the country’s considerable lack of faith in Congress on everything. On top of that, there are reports that the Republicans and Democrats on the committee sent different proposals to the Congressional Budget Office to get scored for their deficit-cutting impact, meaning the two sides are still on different pages. Then thirty-three Senate Republicans signed a letter opposing any increase in revenues as part of the final Super Committee deal, which most Democrats, including President Obama, have said is required if they agree to reform entitlements. And now the committee might be looking to push back its deadline so as to have more time to reach a deal.

A hopeful sign of crossing lines in the sand was a letter signed by 100 members of the House, including 40 Republicans and 60 Democrats, which said that, “To succeed, all options for mandatory and discretionary spending and revenues must be on the table.” And don't forget that only 33 Republican Senators signed onto the letter opposing any revenue increases, meaning that 14 Republican Senators perhaps agreed more with the 100 members in the House.  Then Speaker Boehner (R-OH) came out and had positive comments about the committee needing to reach a deal. He went on to say that he would feel “bound” by the sequester if the Super Committee failed, meaning Super Committee members and Congress shouldn’t simply assume they can undo the sequester if the committee doesn’t succeed, as some lawmakers have said they would like to. The Minority Leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), has reportedly jumped on the “Go big!” bandwagon today too. And at their last public hearing, the witnesses gave the committee lots of cheerleading in its attempts to forge a big, bipartisan compromise, even laying out a compromise position the committee could consider (watch 2:54 to 2:58).

November 2, 2011-5:24 PM

The Super Committee held its fourth hearing yesterday with Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson, Alice Rivlin, and Pete Domenici as witnesses.  You can find copies of opening statements and archived footage of the hearing here.

Because the committee has indicated repeatedly that they would need to submit a package to the Congressional Budget Office by the beginning of November to get it scored in time for their November 23rd deadline (see the committee deadlines far below), it's unknown whether the committee will have any more public hearings.  We'll certainly keep you posted if they do.

October 28, 2011-10:29 AM

Over a month later, the Super Committee held their third public hearing, this one about discretionary spending, after weeks of shying away from the spotlight. They’ve announced another hearing for November 1st, featuring two bipartisan deficit reduction teams: Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson along with Alice Rivlin and Pete Domenici.

Very little about what the Super Committee is working on has leaked out so far, despite dozens of stories in the press about how little public information there is. The lack of leaks is in part because some of the closed door meetings of the committee have been limited to all but the committee members and one staffer a person. The number of private meetings has also skyrocketed. By October 3rd there had been four closed door meetings by our count, but the committee started meeting in closed session twice a day at the beginning of the month, and reports continue that they have been regularly huddling behind closed doors. That doesn’t include several meetings committee chairs have had with their respective leadership as well as strictly Republican or Democrat meetings. At their latest public hearings, members made many references to the hard work they’ve been doing behind closed doors and mentioned the large amount of work that they are already doing with the Congressional Budget Office, likely to score various proposals that might ultimately be included in the Super Committee’s package.

No one knows, or more accurately no one is saying, to what level of detail the Super Committee will go. The debt ceiling deal cut almost $1 trillion by setting caps on discretionary spending, the part of the budget that Congress actively appropriates each year, over the next ten years. If those caps are observed, that would be real savings, but what programs would end or see decreased funding won’t be decided until future Congresses set funding levels for every department and program. The current Congress is already dealing with these new discretionary caps, trying to adjust funding levels for different departments so that everything adds up. But Congress tends to not like to be constrained by the decisions of old lawmakers; if Congress in 2020 completely abides by the spending caps set in law at the beginning of August or from any long-term deficit strategy that’s hammered out in the next 12 months, we’ll close up shop and declare victory.

Alternatively, the Super Committee could pass truly comprehensive legislation that targeted specific programs and policies that waste taxpayer dollars. Some Super Committee members inquired about auctioning off some of the country’s wireless spectrum. The committee could close specific holes in the tax code that skew taxpayer behavior or subsidize corporations. They could target weapons programs that might help create jobs in some legislators’ districts but don’t actually help protect our country in the most efficient ways possible. They could better prioritize transportation spending to get a bigger bang for our buck. We’ve proposed 104 different specific programs to cut or reform, and we’re just getting warmed up.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011-4:16 PM

The Super Committee met at 10 AM this morning at a hearing titled, “Overview: Discretionary Outlays, Security and Non-Security,” with CBO Director Doug Elmendorf again testifying.  You can find the archived footage of that hearing here.

Co-Chair Patty Murray (D-WA) announced at the end of the hearing that the Super Committee will hold another public hearing next week, their fourth hearing with witnesses, on November 1st.  Testifying before the committee will be Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles, co-chairs of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, along with Alice Rivlin and Pete Domenici, co-chairs of the Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force.  Both groups released deficit reduction plans in the last year that would reduce deficits by $4+ trillion over the next decade.  You can find the and the .

Monday, October 24, 2011-5:02 PM

The Super Committee has posted all the letters they received from House and Senate committees with their recommendations for the things the Super Committee should cut. 

You can find those letters here.

Thursday, October 13, 2011-5:09 PM

The Democratic Ranking Members of the 16 House Committees have all sent recommendations to the Super Committee centered around their respective policy areas.  Links to those 16 letters are below.  Note that the oversight and transportation ranking members released more comprehensive reports. (All PDFs)

Committee on Appropriations: Letter from Ranking Member Norm Dicks

Committee of Armed Services: Letter from Ranking Member Adam Smith

Committee on Education and the Workforce: Letter from Ranking Member George Miller

Committee on Energy and Commerce: Letter from Ranking Member Henry A. Waxman

Committee on Financial Services: Letter from Ranking Member Barney Frank

Committee on Foreign Affairs: Letter from Ranking Member Howard Berman

Committee on Homeland Security: Letter from Ranking Member Bennie G. Thompson

Committee on House Administration: Letter from Ranking Member Robert A. Brady

Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence: Letter from Ranking Member C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger

Committee on the Judiciary: Letter from Ranking Member John Conyers

Committee on Natural Resources: Letter from Ranking Member Ed Markey

Committee on Oversight and Government Reform: Letter from Ranking Member Elijah E. Cummings

Committee on Science, Space and Technology: Letter from Ranking Member Eddie Bernice Johnson

Committee on Small Business: Letter from Ranking Member Nydia M. Velazquez

Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure: Letter from Ranking Member Nick J. Rahall

Committee on Ways and Means: Letter from Ranking Member Sander Levin

Monday, October 3, 2011-3:09 PM

Perhaps the recent cold weather in the nation’s capital is the result ofall the dour stories about the state of the Super Committee over the last week. After having their third and fourth behind-closed-doors meetings on Monday and Tuesday of last week—both meetings going for six or seven hours—there has been a slew reports with unsourced congressional aides and nameless lobbyists saying that a major deal reducing the deficit by $3 or $4 trillion was unlikely, and even a $1.2 trillion deal would be difficult. Aides to Sens. McConnell (R-KY) and Kyl (R-AZ) have even gone so far as to surmise that Congress would not allow the $1.2 trillion trigger that automatically cuts spending to go into effect if a deal weren’t passed out of the Super Committee. If that’s really the case, that means that Congress would have to vote for, and the President would sign, separate legislation to increase the debt ceiling (again) to avoid the threat of imminent government default.

Though there have been no leaks about what the committee has been discussing for their 15 some odd hours behind closed doors together, Super Committee members have been dependably demure about significant changes to the tax code or entitlements. Reps. Upton (R-MI) and Camp (R-MI), chairs of the Energy and Commerce and Ways and Means Committees respectively, remain non-committal as to whether tax reform could be a part of the Super Committee’s proposal. And President Obama continues to travel around the country pushing his American Jobs Act, which will cost $447 billion and which he asked the Committee to pay for as part of its ultimate plan; the president has offered his own $4.4 trillion deficit reduction plan to Congress and the committee (which relies on some fuzzy math, BTW).

So far, there are no new public hearings scheduled for the committee, even though Congress is back in session this week. If they plan to give the Congressional Budget Office enough time to score any legislative proposal in time for the November 23rd deadline, the committee has about 5 weeks left to pass something. In any case, they have 51 days to pass something or else the Super Committee will turn into a pumpkin.

For the all the partisan back and forth, the issue isn’t that difficult; Taxpayers for Common Sense has already come up with $1.53 trillion plus a couple hundred billion extra that while not CBO-scorable, could end up costing taxpayers big. And don’t worry, we’ve got more coming.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011-4:28 PM

According to the National Journal, the Super Committee held their second private meeting that has been publicly reported, this one running two and a half hours long. Although no members had any news to share after the meeting, the meeting was supposedly the first time the committee negotiated over the kind of package that might ultimately be passed out of the Super Committee. It’s generally unknown what level of specificity the committee will get into, whether they will cut and target specific provisions in the tax code, programs in the budget, or parts of entitlement spending, or if they will instead establish caps on certain areas as they did in the debt ceiling deal.

The Super Committee’s second hearing is tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011-11:30 AM

President Obama gave a speech at the White House Monday morning delivering his planto reduce the deficit over the next ten years. You can find a White House fact sheet on the details of the plan here. The president says his plan reduces the deficit by $4.4 trillion: $1.2 trillion from the debt ceiling deal already passed in August, $1.5 trillion from changes to the tax code, $1.1 trillion from drawing down troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, $580 billion from mandatory programs, including Medicare, Medicaid, and agricultural subsidies, and $430 billion from paying less interest on the debt over the next decade due to the mentioned savings. This plan also pays for the bill he proposed to Congress last week, The American Jobs Act, which will cost about $447 billion.

While TCS will be looking at the specifics of the plan in the coming days, as we have The American Jobs Act, there are a few important areas to highlight and how that relates back to the actions the Super Committee might take.

First, remember that last week Speaker Boehner gave a speech at the Washington Economic Club laying out his ideas for the Super Committee. Importantly, that speech included as broad pillars some of the same things that President Obama’s speech included: entitlement and tax reform. During his speech, Speaker Boehner called for reform to entitlements because they are a significant driver of deficits due to America’s aging population, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office Chief Doug Elmendorf pointed out during his testimony to the Super Committee last week. Boehner said:

“The Joint Committee can achieve real deficit reduction by reforming entitlements and taking real action to preserve and strengthen Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.”

He also called for the committee to lay out a framework for tax reform in the coming months, saying that tax expenditures, the various provisions in the tax code that allow taxpayers to pay less in taxes if they engage in certain activities, should be closed to lower tax rates overall:

“Yes, tax reform should include closing loopholes. Not for purposes of bringing more money to the government. But because it's the right thing to do.”

Today, President Obama also called for entitlement reform, proposing $248 billion in savings from reforming Medicare and $72 billion from reforming Medicaid and other health programs.

“Finally, this plan includes structural reforms to reduce the cost of health care in programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Keep in mind we've already included a number of reforms in the health care law, which will go a long way towards controlling these costs. But we're going to have to do a little more. This plan reduces wasteful subsidies and erroneous payments while changing some incentives that often lead to excessive health care costs. It makes prescriptions more affordable through faster approval of generic drugs. We’ll work with governors to make Medicaid more efficient and more accountable. And we’ll change the way we pay for health care. Instead of just paying for procedures, providers will be paid more when they improve results — and such steps will save money and improve care.”

The president also called for tax reform that would close loopholes in the tax code, lower tax rates, and make the country more competitive. However, this is where the agreement between the two figureheads of American’s largest political parties stops.

Along with some entitlement reform, the president also proposed raising government revenue by $1.5 trillion, of which $866 trillion would come from allowing the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to expire for upper income earners, $410 billion would come from closing limiting the number of exceptions people making over $250,000 a year can claim, and $300 billion which would come from closing holes in the tax code, or ending tax expenditures. Speaker Boehner has specifically objected to any increases in overall revenues to pass through the Super Committee. The two leaders agree on closing tax expenditures, just not what to do with the increase in revenue realized from those closures.

During his speech, the president issued a veto threat, saying:

“And I will veto any bill that changes benefits for those who rely on Medicare but does not raise serious revenues by asking the wealthiest Americans or biggest corporations to pay their fair share. We are not going to have a one-sided deal that hurts the folks who are most vulnerable.”

So the speaker wants entitlement reform and no tax increases and the president doesn’t want entitlement reform without tax increases.

The people who get to take the first crack at cracking this political stalemate? The Super Committee, with an appropriately timed hearing on revenue and tax reform slated for this Friday. While any proposal that passes out of the committee will also have to make it through Speaker Boehner’s majority in the House of Representatives and be signed into law, or vetoed, by the President.

And in case you missed it, here’s our $1.53 trillion in cuts that the Committee can use (plus a few hundred billion more that might cost taxpayers if Congress doesn’t stop it).

Sunday, September 18, 2011–9:34 PM

TCS has been busy putting together our own list of $1.53 trillion in cuts over the next ten years, along with another couple hundred billion in reforms that might not count against the Super Committee’s baseline but is still desperately needed. Find our list of 134 programs, projects, and provisions that need to be cut or reformed here.

In the meantime, the president and leaders in Congress have been staking out their positions as the Super Committee considers how to proceed. Speaker Boehner gave a talk at the Washington Economic Club which laid out his priorities for the committee. Those comments were largely consistent with statements he has made over the last several months:

“If the Joint Committee does its work correctly – addressing the structural problems in our entitlement programs that have put us in danger of more job-destroying downgrades, and setting the stage for fundamental tax reform that will help to support private investment – it will have begun to remove some of the biggest barriers to job creation that exist in our country today.”

On the same day, a bipartisan group of 36 senators called for the Super Committee to go big, seeking a deal closer to $4 trillion.

Also last week, the Super Committee met for about an hour in private on September 15, a first so far. Emerging from the meeting, the committee members unsurprisingly had little to say, but called their opportunity “historic.”

Coming Up This Week

The Super Committee is slated to have their second hearing, entitled, “Overview: Revenue Options and Reforming the Tax Code” on Thursday, September 22, with the Chief of Staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, Thomas Barthold, testifying.

Also, Monday morning at 10:30 AM, President Obama is expected to lay out his plan to submit to the Super Committee to reduce the deficit. Some details of that plan have already leaked, including something he’s dubbing the “Buffett Rule” to ensure that millionaires pay a minimum amount of tax and he's predicted to offer $300 billion in savings from Medicare and Medicaid over the next 10 years. We will have a summary of his plan after his speech.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011–2:10 PM

The Super Committee had their first formal hearing today.  They have put together a website where all documents and announcements related to the Super Committee will be publicly accessible.  That website address is here:

http://deficitreduction.senate.gov

Check back later for a brief summary of today's hearing, and check back regularly for all the latest, important information on the Super Committee.

Friday, September 9, 2011–11:30 AM

Last night, in a speech to both chambers of Congress, President Obama described a $447 billion dollar plan that he’ll submit as legislation to Congress in the coming days. During the speech, he mentioned that he would be sending his own deficit/debt reduction proposal to the Super Committee a week from Monday, or September 19, and that he wanted the Super Committee proposal to also pay for his new legislative initiative, The American Jobs Act:

“The agreement we passed in July will cut government spending by about $1 trillion over the next ten years. It also charges this Congress to come up with an additional $1.5 trillion in savings by Christmas. Tonight, I’m asking you to increase that amount so that it covers the full cost of the American Jobs Act. And a week from Monday, I’ll be releasing a more ambitious deficit plan – a plan that will not only cover the cost of this jobs bill, but stabilize our debt in the long run.”

He said the plan he would submit to the Super Committee would be similar to what he’s proposed in the past:

“This approach is basically the one I’ve been advocating for months. In addition to the trillion dollars of spending cuts I’ve already signed into law, it’s a balanced plan that would reduce the deficit by making additional spending cuts; by making modest adjustments to health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid; and by reforming our tax code in a way that asks the wealthiest Americans and biggest corporations to pay their fair share.”

Because the Super Committee is only required to pass $1.2 trillion in deficit savings over the next ten years but encouraged to find $1.5 trillion in the legislative text of the Budget Control Act of 2011, this means President Obama’s plan for deficit reduction could save anywhere from $1.8 to $2 trillion, or even more.

Also yesterday, there were reports that more than two dozen senators are working on a $3 trillion plan or greater to pass through the Super Committee that would include a major tax code overhaul and changes to entitlements.

Thursday, September 8, 2011–3:15 PM

During the Super Committee’s first meeting, they adopted rules to govern the committee. Those rules can be found at Co-Chair Murray’s website here.

The rule that’s already receiving the most press is the Super Committee’s ability to meet in private:

“Each hearing and meeting of the Joint Select Committee shall be open to the public and the media unless the Joint Select Committee, in open session and a quorum being present, determines by majority vote that such hearing or meeting shall be held in closed session.”

This means that, so long as 7 members publicly vote to have a private meeting, they whole committee can do so.  However, no votes can be taken during closed session.

The rules also make several mentions to a Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction website, meaning one will hopefully be up in the coming days, as was widely reported in August.

Thursday, September 8, 2011–2:00 PM

The Super Committee met for the first time today to provide opening statements to frame the hearings going forward and to adopt meeting rules. All twelve members were given the opportunity to talk about their priorities and goals for the committee’s final report to the rest of Congress. Many members mentioned the thousands of hours already spent by other groups and commissions to come up with viable plans to reduce the deficit and rein in spending: the Bowles-Simpson Commission, the Gang of Six in the Senate, the Rivlin-Domenici Plan, and many others.

All of the same topics Congress has been talking about for the last 9 months were front and center: jobs, tax reform, discretionary spending, jobs, ending waste, entitlements, and jobs.  No one drew lines in the sand and both sides struck a tone of cooperation and bipartisanship–just as we asked them to in the letter we sent them yesterday.

That was short lived though, when Senator Kyl (R-AZ) told a group later in the day that he would quit the Super Committee if it had any more cuts in defense than was already included in the debt ceiling deal.

It's going to be a long few months.

The committee is slated to hold their next public hearing on Tuesday, September 13, which is entitled, “The History and Drivers of Our Nation's Debt and Its Threats” with CBO Director Douglas Elemendorf.

 Super Committee Overview

The “Super Committee”

The Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, or “Super Committee”, was created as part of the debt ceiling deal, known as the Budget Control Act of 2011, negotiated between the president and leadership in both the Senate and House of Representatives at the beginning of August. Composed of 12 members in total (3 Republicans and 3 Democrats from both the House and Senate), the committee has until November 23, one day before Thanksgiving, to vote on a plan that saves at least $1.2 trillion over ten years. A simple majority of the committee is necessary to approve the deficit plan, and since the committee is composed of 6 Democrats and 6 Republicans, any plan will require the vote of at least one Republican and one Democrat.

Upon passage, the debt ceiling deal included extraordinary provisions that would force a vote in both the House and Senate, who have to vote on the plan by December 23, two days before Christmas. No parliamentary delay tactics would be allowed, including the filibuster in the Senate, which requires a bill to get 60 votes to pass. Furthermore, no amendments may be offered to the bill. If the Super Committee plan receives a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives, it then goes to the president for his signature or veto.

The “Trigger”

If the Super Committee process breaks down at any stage—the Super Committee doesn’t pass a plan out of the committee, the plan passes the Super Committee but doesn’t get a majority in the House or Senate, or anything else stops Congress from passing an at least $1.2 trillion deficit reduction deal—a legislative “trigger” is set off. The trigger was passed as part of the debt ceiling deal and is designed to compel Congress to reach a deficit reduction deal.

If no deal is passed, $1.2 trillion in discretionary spending will be subject to “sequestration” – essentially cut – which would be equally divided out year by year from 2013-2021, roughly half from security spending and half from nonsecurity spending. Security spending counts as the money Congress spends on the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Veteran’s Affairs, and others. Nonsecurity spending counts as the money Congress spends on the Departments of Energy, Justice, Education, and many others. If the Super Committee and Congress passed a bill that was less than $1.2 trillion, the sequestration would make up the difference so the total deficit reduction reached $1.2 trillion.

For instance, if the Super Committee reported a bill that reduced deficits by $900 billion over the next 10 years and Congress passed it, the trigger would instead cut $300 billion, roughly half of which would come from security spending and half of which would come from nonsecurity spending over the same nine year period. Because of this, current law will reduce deficits by $1.2 trillion one way or another. The only way this won’t happen is if Congress passed a different law that repealed or amended the trigger or any other part of the debt ceiling deal. Congress cannot bind itself or future Congresses and can always write and pass new legislation that changes old laws.

The trigger would go into effect on January 15, 2012, cutting spending for fiscal years 2013 through 2021.

Raising the Debt Ceiling

Once Congress votes on and passes and the president signs a bill reducing deficits by $1.2 trillion over the next ten years, or the trigger is tripped, the president is able to raise the debt ceiling, a self-imposed limit on how much into debt Congress can go, by another $1.2 trillion. (The debt ceiling agreement already allowed the debt ceiling to be raised by as much as $900 billion.) However, if the Super Committee proposes and Congress adopts deficit reduction greater than $1.2 trillion, the president could raise the debt ceiling by that amount, dollar for dollar, up to a total of $1.5 trillion.

This is where some confusion comes in as to exactly how much the Super Committee has to reduce the deficit by. The trigger requires at least $1.2 trillion, but the language of the debt ceiling deal urges the committee to find $1.5 trillion in savings, and allows for an increase in the debt ceiling by up to that much. The Super Committee could also vote on a package that was much larger than $1.5 trillion, and it would still receive expedited consideration in the House and Senate so long as it passes the Super Committee.

Important Dates

This set of dates was compiled by the Republican Study Committee and flags all of the important deadlines for the Super Committee and the Budget Control Act in the coming weeks and months.  You can find a pdf of it here.

September 16, 2011: Date by which the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction must hold its first meeting. 
September 22, 2011: Deadline for Congress to consider a resolution of disapproval for first tranche ($900 billion) of debt limit increase. 
October 1-December 31, 2011: Timeframe in which both houses of Congress must vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment. 
October 14, 2011: Deadline for House and Senate committees to submit recommendations to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction. 
November 23, 2011: Deadline for the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction to vote on a plan with the goal (not a requirement) of $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction. 
December 2, 2011: Deadline for the Joint Select Committee to submit report and legislative language to the President and Congress. 
December 23, 2011: Deadline for the House/Senate to vote on the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction’s bill. 
January 15, 2012: Date that the “trigger” leading to $1.2 trillion of future spending cuts goes into effect, if the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction’s legislation has not been enacted. 
February 2012: Approximate time when the first $900 billion of debt ceiling increase runs out. 
February/March 2012: Sometime in this period—15 days after the President uses his authority under the bill to increase the debt ceiling a second time—is the deadline for Congress to consider a resolution of disapproval for the second tranche ($1.2-$1.5 trillion) of debt limit increase. 
Fall/Winter 2012: The additional $2.1-$2.4 trillion of borrowing authority from this law runs out. 
January 2, 2013: OMB orders sequestrations for defense and non-defense categories of spending necessary to meet spending cuts required by the “trigger.”