FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 20, 2025

Washington, D.C. – A new analysis from Taxpayers for Common Sense finds that lease sales in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) would generate between $3 million and $30 million in revenue for federal taxpayers, far lower than previous estimates. Based on twenty years of bid data from nearby federal and state lease sales, the report highlights the financial and logistical challenges that make ANWR an unattractive prospect for the oil and gas industry.

Despite industry disinterest and meager projected revenue, some policymakers continue to eye ANWR leasing as a fiscal offset in forthcoming budget reconciliation legislation. The numbers tell a different story: even under the most favorable (and unlikely) of conditions, revenue from new ANWR lease sales would amount to nowhere near enough to be reasonably included as an offset to a multi-trillion dollar reconciliation package. Previous lease sales failed to bring in any revenue at all.

“Taxpayers have been sold a bill of goods when it comes to ANWR leasing,” said Autumn Hanna, Vice President of Taxpayers for Common Sense. “It was never a credible revenue offset, and it certainly isn’t now. Relying on speculative lease sales in a remote area with little competition and high drilling costs as a budget offset is fiscal malpractice. The industry isn’t interested, the revenue isn’t real, and taxpayers are left holding the bag.”

Industry Disinterest and Financial Hurdles

The report details a history of underwhelming ANWR lease sales. The January 2021 sale initially generated just $16.5 million in total federal revenue, with bids coming in at the legal minimum. Most of the leases were won by the state-backed Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA), rather than oil companies. Since the sale, all leases have been either cancelled or rescinded, ultimately leaving taxpayers with no new revenue. A second lease sale, also mandated by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, was held in January 2025 and received no bids at all.

Beyond these dismal auction results, oil companies have steadily distanced themselves from ANWR. ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and BP all started to exit Arctic investments years ago, and major financial institutions and insurers—including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Chubb—refuse to finance or insure drilling in ANWR.

“Major oil companies have made it clear: drilling in ANWR doesn’t make economic sense,” added Hanna. “The area lacks critical infrastructure, development costs are sky-high, and financial institutions won’t touch it. We need to stop pretending ANWR leasing is a serious revenue source.”

ANWR Leasing in Reconciliation: A Procedural and Fiscal Misstep

In addition to flawed revenue projections, the report highlights how including ANWR leasing in budget reconciliation violates the spirit of the process. Reconciliation is meant for budgetary matters with direct fiscal impacts, not for advancing unrelated policy changes with negligible financial returns.

When the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act took effect in 2018, the national debt stood at $20 trillion. Just seven years later, it has ballooned to more than $36 trillion. Any future reconciliation package must be fiscally responsible—not full of illusory savings and budget gimmicks. Taxpayers cannot afford another deficit-financed tax cut—what’s needed is a sustainable path towards reducing the deficit and paring down the national debt.

“If you’re trying to pay for $4.5 trillion in lost revenue, there must be credible and reliable proposals,” said Hanna. “At best ANWR leasing is a drop in the bucket that doesn’t belong in reconciliation, and it certainly doesn’t serve taxpayers.”

A Better Path for Taxpayers

Rather than continuing to pursue revenues from a failed leasing program, the report urges Congress to focus on revenue sources that deliver real returns for taxpayers. Improved oversight of existing oil and gas royalty collections alone could generate tens of millions of dollars annually, eclipsing any potential revenue from ANWR leases.

“With trillion-dollar decisions on the table, policymakers should be looking at reliable revenue solutions, not speculative Arctic leases that won’t pan out,” concluded Hanna. “We’ve been down this road before. Taxpayers deserve better than budgetary tricks that don’t add up.”

About Taxpayers for Common Sense

Taxpayers for Common Sense is an independent, nonpartisan budget watchdog that works to ensure government spending is transparent, accountable, and serves the best interests of taxpayers.

For media inquiries, please contact: Ike Obi, 202-546-8500

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