Taxpayers for Common Sense (TCS) conducted an in-depth analysis of potential federal revenues from new oil and gas lease sales in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Our examination, grounded in lease sale data spanning the past two decades, provides a rigorous, data-driven estimate of likely federal revenues. These findings directly challenge overly optimistic revenue projections that have been used to justify recent fiscal policies, particularly using ANWR lease sales as revenue-raising offsets for the proposed $4.5 trillion in lost revenue as part of the budget reconciliation package.

Our methodology involved reviewing and calculating averages from 20 years of oil and gas lease auction data in Alaska’s North Slope region. Specifically, TCS analyzed results from lease sales in the federal National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska (NPRA), state-managed waters in the Beaufort Sea, and adjacent state lands. Using average bid amounts and different leasing rates from these lease sales, we developed realistic revenue scenarios for potential ANWR leasing.

Applying the 20-year state and federal bid average in Alaska’s North Slope, our analysis projects future federal revenues from ANWR lease sales at between $3 million and $30 million. For context, even the highest projected revenue—in the most unlikely scenario—represents less than 0.001% of an offset to the $4.5 trillion in proposed tax cuts.

The January 2021 ANWR lease sale authorized by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) yielded only $16.5 million in revenue, largely funded by the state-backed Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority (AIDEA). Subsequent withdrawals and cancellations of leases ultimately led to taxpayers receiving no new revenue from the sale. A second lease sale in January 2025 attracted no industry bids at all. ANWR lease sales were originally projected to generate $1 billion in federal revenue to offset the TCJA tax cuts, which Congress now seeks to make permanent.

All recent leasing in the region analyzed by TCS clearly indicates that revenue from ANWR leasing cannot credibly serve as a meaningful fiscal offset. When the TCJA took effect in 2018, the national debt stood at $20 trillion; just seven years later, it ballooned to more than $36 trillion. Policymakers must base budgetary decisions on sound fiscal analysis rather than speculative and historically unsupported revenue projections.