The tragic situation in Ukraine leaves us heartbroken. And while there’s some insight to be found in the flurry of coverage and commenting, there is also a lot of uninformed prognostications, and worse, a lot of special interest opportunists using the crisis to push their own agenda. The oil and gas industry and their apologists are some of the worst offenders. So, let’s lay out the facts and make sure no one is fooled by lobbyists trying to parlay sympathetic reflexes to help Ukraine and market uncertainties into expanding special treatment for oil and gas interests.
- Fact One: the U.S. has virtually no exposure to Russia on oil and gas and is already energy independent
- Fact Two: Business is booming for U.S. oil and gas companies
- Fact Three: Oil and gas companies are sitting on idle leases covering millions of federal acres and benefitting from a broken system that costs taxpayers billions of dollars.
Fact one: the U.S. has virtually no exposure to any Russian manipulation of energy markets, and in terms of oil and gas needs, is already energy independent. It’s no secret that Russia has some weight to throw around in energy markets as a significant producer of oil and natural gas, which can impact global oil prices and consumer costs. Back in March 2020 – a couple weeks before most lockdowns began – the price of oil started tanking because Russia refused to agree with OPEC on extending production caps.
Now the concern is that Russia will use its position to lash out at European countries dependent on its supply. That would of course reduce inflows of foreign currency at a time when Russia is otherwise becoming isolated, and the barrage of U.S. and European sanctions intentionally exclude roadblocks to energy transactions. Even if Russia does tighten the figurative spigot, however, the U.S. is pretty well insulated from any direct effects.
Unlike our European allies which import about 40% of their natural gas and a quarter of their crude oil from Russia, the U.S. has minimal draws on Russian supply. The U.S. imports precisely 0 cubic feet (yes, zero) of natural gas from Russia, and Russian crude oil made up just 1% of all U.S. crude imports over the last decade. The better stat is probably how much of our needs are met by Russian imports. Even if you include trade of petroleum products – like diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, gasoline, and others – imports from Russia made up just 2 percent of total U.S. oil and petroleum products used over the last decade. Taking your ball and going home isn’t much of an issue if we have 49 of the 50 balls we need; we’ll find someone else to play with.
Even though there’s no immediate threat to U.S. energy markets, some might perceive one because of a dated understanding of our situation. Remember President Bush’s claim that “America is addicted to oil?” At the time in 2006, we were importing 10 million barrels per day (mmb/d) on net and producing just 5 mmb/d. Now, the U.S. produces 11.7 mmb/d of crude oil and since 2020 has been a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Don’t get us wrong, we’re still addicted to oil, but we happen to be our own dealer. We’re also a net exporter of coal, for what it’s worth.
And those exports are already helping our European allies. If the goal is to produce so much oil and gas we can increase our shipping to the EU, then check and check. In 2021, U.S. companies exported 2.8 billion cubic feet of liquified natural gas (LNG) to European countries per day – nearly eight times more than they did in 2018. In that same period, U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products to EU countries grew by more than 40 percent. And the trend is set to continue.
In that context, the foremost oil and gas industry association pushing for “unleashing” American energy as a response to developments in Ukraine makes little sense. It makes even less sense if you look at the industry trendlines.
Fact two: Business is booming for U.S. oil and gas companies. Oil production is up 20% from a year ago, natural gas production hit a record high in December, and oil prices are hitting peaks not seen since 2014. Profits are following suit. The top six oil and gas giants – Exxon, Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, BP, and ConocoPhillips – reported combined profits of $90 billion for 2021. And the good times are set to keep rolling, with more production coming online and prices unlikely to drop much, if at all, in the near term. The number of rigs drilling new wells has jumped by 10% since the start of the year and the International Energy Agency predicts total U.S. production in 2022 will break records.
So when industry flacks say oil and gas companies need to be “unleashed,” the appropriate response is: from what? There’s no leash, and high prices will encourage production growth more than any federal policy ever could.
What the shameless antics are really after is to blunt the momentum toward ending the current cushy treatment for oil and gas companies at taxpayers’ expense.
Fact Three: Oil and gas is sitting on millions of acres of leased land that isn’t producing oil and gas yet and are benefitting from an outdated system that’s padding industry profits and costing taxpayers billions of dollars. The Biden Administration rightly paused federal oil and gas leasing when it came into office because handing out more leases under a broken system perpetuates the problem. The pause has been lifted, but much-needed reforms – like updating the century-old royalty rate, bringing rental rates and minimum bids at auction into the 21st century, and eliminating noncompetitive leasing – have yet to be implemented.
The pressure to make change was building. Both the House and Senate versions of the Build Back Better Act proposed making those reforms and others, and the Department of the Interior recently hinted it might make changes where it can after issuing a report calling for reform in November.
Confronted with the possibility of losing a little bit of their government gravy train (don’t forget the tax breaks and lax rules that should go too), the industry is exploiting what’s happening in Ukraine to stifle reforms, and expand their giveaways.
The juvenile tactics harken back to high school: it’s like the rich kid getting called into the principal’s office for stealing lunch money then pointing to a bully beating up a classmate outside to divert attention. Except it’s the oil and gas industry whose prices, production, and profits are all way up. And it’s not lunch money, its billions of taxpayer dollars. And it’s not a schoolyard fight, it’s a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. Helping Ukraine should be a priority but it shouldn’t mean giving up on accountability for the oil and gas industry that’s long overdue. That won’t help anyone.
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