Here we are again. If Congress does nothing, the government will shut down at the stroke of midnight on Friday. But fortunately, it looks like there is enough agreement on the overall size of the Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23) discretionary budget to pass an omnibus spending bill (just) before Christmas.

This is good news for several reasons. First, shutting down the government is always a bad idea. Full stop.

The other option being floated was a Continuing Resolution (CR) for an entire year. Congress passes CRs all the time, usually to buy themselves time to pass a budget. In fact, they will likely pass a weeklong CR to avoid a shutdown on Friday, while they try to hammer out the final details for the omnibus.

But a yearlong CR is a terrible idea too. It freezes programs in place, denying federal agencies the ability to end programs they no longer want to fund. A yearlong CR increases the chances of the Biden Administration making multiple Emergency Supplemental requests to fill gaps, which leads directly to reduced oversight. Such a lengthy CR also increases the likelihood of inadvertent violations of the Antideficiency Act.

The good news is that, as of this writing, chances are good that leadership will bring an omnibus spending bill to the floor and begin consideration next week. Of the three possible outcomes, this is by far the best, though not ideal.

Squeezing so much legislating into a 2-week period immediately before the year-end break is still going to be a heavy lift. No omnibus leaves the station without picking up a few passengers, and this one will be no exception. More aid to Ukraine and an update of the Electoral Count Act will almost certainly hitch a ride. The short-term CR had several pages entitled, “TITLE VI—IMPROVING FEDERAL PRECIPITATION INFORMATION.” Say what? If this new program is codified in a short-term CR, imagine what might be tucked into a full-government omnibus. Any Senator can stall the whole process by placing a hold on the legislation.

Nevertheless, it is encouraging to see bipartisan, bicameral support for any legislation, especially one as massive as this.

The hang-up has been over the non-defense spending total or “topline.” The $1.7 trillion omnibus includes $858 billion for defense, roughly a 10 percent increase from last year. Disagreement over roughly $26 billion on the non-defense side has been a sticking point for weeks. The breakthrough came over the weekend, culminating in an announcement today of agreement on a “framework.” Of course, it didn’t come at the cost of the defense boost, it was just more spending.

If everything goes to plan, Congress will pass the weeklong CR this week and the full omnibus by the 23^rd. This is a real bummer for members of Congress and their staff, but it beats the alternative.

For regular Weekly Wastebasket readers, it will come as no surprise to hear us say Congress could avoid all this drama by doing its job and passing appropriations bills through regular order. But this would not allow party leadership to control the process so closely, and so here we are, once again.

If Congress is going to insist on “parity” we suggest a search and remove process to excise all the so-called “unfunded priorities” in the Pentagon portion of the omnibus. TCS compiled all of those we could find and our friends at National Taxpayers Union estimate they total at least $24.3 billion. Hey, almost all the way to that $26 billion.

As always, we eagerly await the release of more details on the contents of the promised omnibus. We’ll start posting our reactions as soon as it is available.