There was plenty of coffee and donuts at the office this week—both necessary to TCS’s mission to be a reality check on the federal budget.
Last week, the word—reflected by more than one economist in the news—was that this budget might be deader on arrival than most. This week, the words of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle seem to make that true. Let’s add that although we at TCS are all for efforts to rein in the budget deficit, we’re also all for grounding these efforts in reality and math.
Take for instance, the small matter of revenue – the budget projects an increase in both individual and corporate tax revenues over Congressional Budget Office projections, all while assuming deficit neutral tax reform. The growth assumptions here are wishful thinking. Not for nothing did one of our analysts use the words “magic growth beans.”
Indeed, our analysts have had a lot to say through the week about this budget. If you didn’t catch our live updates and tweets on Tuesday, it’s all on the TCS site.
There were some welcome cuts, for instance MOX, bioenergy programs, crop insurance, and a call for another round of military base closures. From the Pentagon’s OCO budget (now the 4th largest “agency,” bigger than Dept. of Education), to the confusing kill it yet tax it estate/death tax, to the F-35 that’s eating the Air Force budget alive, our analysts dived into President Trump’s first full budget. Spared? Income subsidies for certain agricultural commodity producers. Boondoggles? The wall, unsurprisingly, where the DHS request is just the tip of the wall’s funding “iceberg.”
TCS president Ryan Alexander calls this budget “an interesting thought exercise,” but we are concerned there might not have been enough thought going into it. Where is the strategy? Where are the details of how programs are going to be funded, to say nothing of congressional support—without which none of this approaches reality? Our fiscal problems are real and serious. And while we appreciate the ambition of this document, magic math isn’t going to help us make the hard choices we need to move towards a healthier budget. Or move, at all.
In case you’re wondering, the budget was a 62-page message and statement, followed by 172 pages detailing Major Savings and Reforms, and another 62-page breakout, department by department. On top of this are thousands of pages worth of tables, fact sheets, supplements, and detailed budget justifications produced by each agency. We’re not done looking at the budget and assessing where the taxpayer’s money is best spent or being wasted. So keep checking out what’s fondly being called the Budgetpalooza page on the TCS website.
Let’s give credit where credit is due: like most presidential budgets, this one includes some proposals designed to appease his supporters, some designed to provoke his opponents, and some which may just become law. Congress will certainly come up with alternative choices they feel are better. But it’s time to make some hard choices if we are to move forward and towards a healthier budget. So, take this budget, digest it, and get to work.
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