With the final House of Representatives race called, the dust has settled on the 2024 Congressional election. The current Congress is wrapping up business, including a farm bill extension, the National Defense Authorization Act, a passel of bills that have been lying around like the Water Resources Development Act, and most notably, a Continuing Resolution that will extend the government’s funding until March at fiscal year 2024 levels.
What awaits the 119th Congress is a daunting fiscal challenge. The federal budget deficit for 2024 reached a staggering $2 trillion. For the first time, the interest to service the nation’s $36 trillion debt exceeded the $826 billion defense budget. At $950 billion annually, interest payments on this debt are an inescapable financial burden. That’s just to cover what we already owe. With any new deficit-reducing policies unlikely to take effect until at least halfway through fiscal year 2025—if at all—the coming year is likely to see another significant deficit.
Adding to this strain are the nation’s major entitlement programs. Medicare, particularly Part D (the prescription drug benefit), was never designed with offsetting receipts, and even the portions that were are now fiscally underwater. In 2023, 43 percent of Medicare financing came from the federal government. Meanwhile, Social Security is on track to be unable to pay full benefits by 2035, as payroll tax revenue and interest income will not keep pace. Together, these major health and retirement programs are running expenses far beyond their revenues.
Despite this, much of the focus remains on discretionary spending. With the president-elect and some Congressional Republicans pledging to increase defense spending, the spotlight is narrowing further to non-defense discretionary spending. This represents only a slim slice of the fiscal pie. Attempting to tackle the deficit while ignoring entitlements and defense is like trying to fight a battle blindfolded with both arms tied behind your back.
But that’s where we are. Enter the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This newly created “agency” claims its mission is to cut $2 trillion in annual spending. And much of the recent commentary was that this would be achieved by eliminating regulations and federal employees. However, in fiscal year 2022, total compensation for the federal civilian workforce—including pay and benefits—was roughly $270 billion. Of that, 60 percent went to civilians working in the Departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security. Eliminating the entire federal workforce wouldn’t even achieve 15 percent of DOGE’s target.
Reforms to Social Security and Medicare have to be on the table. These reforms should strengthen the financial stability of these programs while ensuring that beneficiaries continue to receive the support they need.
Next, let’s look at defense spending which is more than half of discretionary spending. Even Elon Musk has called out the F-35 acquisition as a disaster. Music to our ears, we’ve been saying this for over a decade. The Pentagon should pause further F-35 acquisitions, reevaluate the nation’s defense priorities, and stop bailing out defense contractors by absorbing their workforce training costs. The grotesquely over-budget ICBM replacement program should also be canceled.
Federal workforce reforms should focus on efficiency, not anti-government ideology. For example, a former Bureau of Reclamation head has proposed eliminating the agency altogether—a recommendation worth considering. Similarly, it may be time to transfer the Army Corps of Engineers’ civil works projects elsewhere. Uncle Sam should not be left footing the bill for projects better funded by private interests, nor should taxpayers bear the cleanup costs for abandoned oil and gas sites after companies walk away with their profits.
Finally, as much of the individual tax provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expire next year, extending them wholesale would add trillions to the national debt. A targeted approach is essential: lawmakers should assess which provisions should remain and which can be eliminated. Moreover, tax reform shouldn’t stop at the TCJA. The nation hasn’t seen meaningful, deficit-neutral tax reform since 1986—revisiting the broader tax code is long overdue.
Lawmakers and pundits claim the 119th Congress wants to “make deficit reduction great again.” For those of us focused on the threats our mounting debt poses to fiscal, economic, and national security, that priority has never wavered. Fresh voices and perspectives are welcome in this conversation. But memes and hashtags won’t chart a sustainable fiscal path. That requires lawmakers and taxpayers alike to confront reality and be honest about the tough decisions we have to make.
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