This article is part of our President’s FY2024 Budget Request Coverage. Visit our Rolling Analysis Page for more.

The Congressional Budget Office projected the ten year deficit would be $22 trillion. The White House projection over the 2024-2033 period – $17.054 trillion. That’s a nearly $5 trillion difference. The first five years of the White House projection is $8.151 trillion. That’s an average of $1.7054 trillion a year over ten years and $1.63 trillion over five. The low year is 2027 with a $1.509 trillion deficit, after that the deficits grows each year, peaking at $2.035 trillion in the last year of the estimate, 2033. That’s $500 billion over the low just six years earlier.

As a percentage of GDP, the budget estimates the deficit will be 6.8 percent of GDP in 2024 and fall nearly a full percentage point in one year to 5.9 percent in 2025. After that the deficit holds constant at roughly 5 percent of GDP for the rest of decade, going as low as 4.6 percent one year, but mostly within a tenth of a point of 5 percent.

Of course magical economic growth can influence all these numbers. It’s all in the assumptions, and no one ever assumes there will be a recession for instance.