The election is days away. Historically, the President’s party doesn’t fare well in mid-term congressional elections, and it doesn’t look like 2022 will be different. In the House at least. Senate Minority Leader McConnell’s (R-KY) prediction that it will be a small majority for whichever party has control of the Senate in the 118^th seems apt as well.

But we’re not election prognosticators, we’re budget watchdogs and be assured we’ll fight for fiscally responsible policies no matter who is in office or in control.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, however. The current 117^th Congress is still here until the new one is sworn in January 3^rd. And there’s a lot this lame duck Congress can and must do.

Top of the list is finally finishing the fiscal year 2023 spending bills to fund government. In September, to avoid a government shutdown, Congress passed a continuing resolution (CR) that keeps funding government agencies at last fiscal year’s levels. But it ends December 16^th, which will be here before you know it. There will be pressure to pass another CR to kick the can to the next Congress, but it’s likely that Democrats in the House will band together to pass an omnibus spending bill, which wraps several bills into one large package. Over in the Senate, Appropriations Chair Leahy (D-VT) and Ranking Member Shelby (R-AL) are retiring, and they’ll want to go out on a good note, and the clubby Senate will probably deliver for them.

There’s also the National Defense Authorization Act. The annual Pentagon policy bill has passed every year for the last 62, so it’s extremely likely that it will get enacted. This is an authorization bill, as opposed to an appropriations bill, but it does serve as another vehicle for whatever members can tack on.

There will likely be a disaster supplemental. Senator Rubio (R-FL) has already put forth a $33 billion package for Florida in the wake of Hurricane Ian. That is going to grow because it doesn’t include funds for Puerto Rico, which was hit by Hurricane Fiona, and other disaster impacted states will also want something.

Then there’s: additional COVID-19 funds the Biden administrations has pushed for; the Electoral Reform Act; additional Ukraine defense funds; and tax extenders. There’s also the permitting reform package Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Manchin (D-WV) tried to push through in September.

Bottom line there’s a lot out there that will be trying to catch a ride on the last trains leaving the Capitol Hill station.

It’s also true these lame duck sessions often over-promise and under-deliver. And whichever party thinks it has the upper hand next Congress will want to push as much into the new year.

Whatever happens, the elephant in the room is … the debt ceiling. The Treasury Department has announced that the ceiling may be reached in early 2023. As the name suggests, the debt ceiling sets the total amount debt the U.S. can carry. The ceiling is nearly $31.4 trillion, and the current national debt is $31.2 trillion.

Democrats may decide not to wait until the ceiling is reached and take care of it in the lame duck session while they control both chambers and the White House. Although the ceiling has been increased scores of times , including four times in President Trump’s term, it can be weaponized politically. This happened in 2011, a deal that led to the much-derided Budget Control Act of 2011 and the so-called Super Committee (which achieved nothing). The debt limit can be raised through budget reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority in the Senate. It will be a very small needle to thread, but the Democrats may choose this path to avoid future headaches. Otherwise, raising the debt limit may be one of the first fights of the 118^th Congress.

If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. would not be able to legally borrow more money and would go into default. This would deliver a devastating blow to the U.S. economy and financial markets around the world. And while holding the debt ceiling hostage for political reasons makes for high drama, there is no question it would be disastrous.

Congress already agreed to all the spending that is leading to the current debt ceiling, it is in the past. If we want to avoid hitting the debt ceiling in future, then we should cut future spending, raise revenue, or both. One of the reasons the U.S. enjoys our current standing in the world is because we are considered a safe investment. This is not worth risking for any policy or spending concession. We need to take it off the table, permanently.