We were going to write about how lawmakers finally closed the legislative books on fiscal year 2019 by adopting an omnibus spending bill to take care of funding the parts of government that hadn’t received their money yet. This would allow the 116th Congress to start their work on the fiscal year 2020 budget. But that didn’t happen.

So then we were going to write about the few month continuing resolution that would kick the budgetary can down the road until February 7th. This would put the new Congress behind the eight ball and force them to deal with the 115th Congress’s left over work. We were also going to point out that CRs are wasteful and hurt agencies trying to get their jobs done, especially since it would be nearly half-way through the fiscal year before they found out their final spending levels. But that didn’t happen.

Instead it appears that there will be a partial government shutdown over a roughly $4 billion debate in border security spending. Federal employees will be furloughed for the holidays and various government agencies and functions will grind to a halt.  And unfortunately, that might happen.

This is all revolving around a wasteful border wall. Last night the House passed a CR that includes $5.7 billion that purportedly will be used for border wall construction and will be available through 2023. Most funding in spending bills is one-year money, but construction money is usually five. This means the wall is getting – on average – a little more than $1.1 billion per year.

We analyzed spending on border barriers since 2007 and found that $9.7 billion has been spent, primarily on various types of fencing. The underlying legislation had $1.6 billion in border funding – the amount the President asked for in his fiscal year 2018 budget request. President Trump later upped his demand to $5 billion, however the Department of Homeland Security never sent a budget amendment to Congress to detail how the funds would be spent. Indeed the $5.7 billion in the House CR is just a lump sum for the “Customs and Border Protection Procurement, Construction, and Improvements” account. And that’s just a blank check made out to CBP to spend nearly $6 billion to build whatever they want, wherever they want, at whenever they feel in the next five years. Even if it was enacted, this is a huge abdication of responsibility by the legislative branch.

This debate has devolved into little more than political theater that helps no one. Even if the President got $5 billion to start building the estimated $25 billion border wall, no one expects he’ll get the remaining $20 billion from a Democratic House in the future.  And the $25 billion estimate is just one of many.

Border security policy, and the spending needed to enact it, should be based on evidence, not rhetoric.  The multifaceted approach of the last 20 years has significantly decreased illegal crossings and should be continued. We should invest in maintenance of the more than 650 miles of fence and wall already in place. There should be additional investments in ports of entry and personnel and technology coupled with foreign policy approaches that serve to reduce illegal immigration.  But the current wall debate misses the mark on what will best reduce illegal immigration and slow the tide of asylum seekers. A huge percentage of illegal immigration is through visa overstays. People who come here legally, but don’t actually leave. A wall does nothing for that.  Many people who cross the southern border are seeking asylum and present themselves to authorities.  A wall does nothing for that.

What does the wall-driven shutdown give us? Across the country, workers at the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Justice, State, and Transportation will not be able to work. Unless deemed “essential” furloughed workers are not even let in the building. If past is prologue, workers will be held harmless and get paid for that time, at least retroactively. So not only do some of the gears of government grind to a halt, taxpayers pay for it too.

The shutdown in 2013 lasted 16 days and the Office of Management and Budget estimated furloughed workers were paid $2 billion for their time. The Obama Administration estimated that the shutdown resulted in $2-6 billion in lost economic output – in part as a result of closed museums and national parks, and the businesses that surround them – reducing 4th quarter Gross Domestic Product by 0.2-0.6 basis points. For the government to shut down right as kids get out of school and families look to have adventures together (say, at a museum or a national park), the lost output could be even greater this time around. There are no winners in shutdowns.

While the President has promised it will be a long shutdown, it’s worth noting that if it doesn’t pass the Senate, the House bill turns into a pumpkin on January 3rd when the new 116th Congress is sworn in. So, we hope that the Senate quickly rejects this irresponsible piece of legislation, re-sends their earlier CR back to the House, and the House passes it. The President offered to own this shutdown, far better would be not to have one.