Now that we have the Eagles in your head, let’s use the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame band to talk about something that will give you a Heartache Tonight – the debt limit. You’ve probably heard about the record $1.4 trillion deficit the country ran in the fiscal year that ended September 30th, but that’s just one year’s worth of difference between revenue and spending. When you add up all those annual deficits, you the get the national debt , currently estimated to total $11.9 trillion. Take It Easy but without an increase, One Of These Nights the national debt is going to top the $12.1 trillion limit placed on it when the stimulus was passed earlier this year. In fact, it will likely occur in the next month.
Even if you’re a New Kid in Town, the reality is that there isn’t a good way to get around increasing the debt limit. The nation cannot afford to default on payments to our creditors— the shock wave through the financial system would likely make last year’s economic chaos look like a ripple in the kiddie pool at the Hotel California. Sure, Treasury has a few tricks to tread water a short while until the limit is eventually lifted, but we are talking about buying a few days with creative accounting. Congress has to act. Besides, these votes become an opportunity to talk about the decisions that brought us to the brink of increasing the debt limit and how we can reduce the need for future increases.
The perilous politics around increasing the debt limit can lead to all sorts of gimmicks and pandering. But we can see through the Lying Eyes. The biggest gimmick is the so-called Gephardt rule , named for the former Democratic House Majority Leader. Under this rule, the House can adopt a debt limit increase at the same time they adopt the budget in order to dodge a direct vote and debate. The Senate, having no similar procedure, has to go in the front door. While just about everyone in both parties and on both sides of the hill knows the limit has to be lifted, it too often becomes a tool for minority party Desperados to ridicule the majority, when it should be a time for thoughtful debate about our nation’s fiscal priorities.
This year is bound to have an interesting twist. Because we are spending money at breakneck speed, even the new limit the House adopted in the spring under the Gephardt Rule – an increase of nearly $1 trillion – may not last through next summer. This, of course, would mean another politically dicey debt limit vote a couple months before the 2010 elections. So now it looks like they may increase the debt limit even further, to $13.5 trillion or more to get through the political cycle. And the probable vehicle of choice? The ever popular Defense spending bill.
There is no Peaceful Easy Feeling about increasing the debt limit. But Congress and the Administration should use this as an opportunity to convince the American public and our creditors around the world that as we move out of recession and into recovery, we are serious about reining in deficit spending and putting our country on a sound fiscal path. Then Please, (Go) Home for Christmas.
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